Market Notes

Market mood

The composite is -13.9, Neutral. The VIX is 18.7. That is a cautious tape. The Fear and Greed Index for stocks is 40. That is fear. The crypto reading is 20. That is extreme fear.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%. S&P 500 futures are contracts that hint at where the index may open. That points to a slightly weaker open. The DXY is marginally higher. DXY is a gauge of the US dollar against major peers. Gold is up almost 0.5%. Oil is flat after recent jumps. Bitcoin is down about 7%. Compared with yesterday, the tone is similar. Volatility remains above recent lows.

The setup favors headline-driven swings and quick rotations.

What happened in the last 24 hours

Iran-linked shipping risk escalated. Four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil spiked on the headlines and later gave back part of the move as flows continued. The incident keeps a floor under energy and freight risk.

Iran’s Guards said they targeted a US early-warning radar in Bahrain. The claim raises the risk of direct US-Iran friction beyond proxy theaters. Gold firmed and oil stayed supported despite intraday giveback.

The dollar pushed toward a 19‑month high as the JPY hovered near 160. JPY is the Japanese yen. Tokyo reiterated it stands ready to act. The move reflects firm US rate expectations and stress in funding trades.

US bond yields saw their biggest jump since 2022 on renewed bets for more Fed hikes. Treasuries sold off and the US 10-year yield moved back near the cycle highs. Treasuries are US government bonds. The US 10-year yield is the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury. Oil strength and hawkish Fed commentary kept inflation fears alive. Stocks lagged as higher real yields pulled valuations down.

Ukraine struck a Russian warship with a drone in the Gulf of Finland. The strike broadens the geography of attacks and raises the chance of friction in the Baltic corridor. European security risk remains elevated.

Today's calendar

• 13:30 UTC. US PPI m/m. High importance. Forecast 0.4%, previous 1.3%. A print at or above 0.5% would lift the USD and push yields up, pressuring equities and gold. USD is the US dollar.
• 13:30 UTC. US Core PPI m/m. High importance. Forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%. A firm 0.4% or higher would reinforce sticky inflation fears and hit rate‑sensitive assets. A soft 0.1% to 0.2% would support a relief bid in equities and bonds, and cap the dollar.

Key concept today

“Priced in” means the baseline expectation is already reflected in market levels. Priced in means the outcome is already assumed by traders and built into prices. Prices move most when new information changes the expected path. Today that is the PPI path for inflation and the policy path for the Fed.

A small miss near consensus may not move much because the market already assumes a mild hiking path into 2026. The reaction size depends on how far the outcome is from the baseline and how confident traders are in that baseline.

Watch the second move after the headline. The first tick often shows positioning and thin liquidity. The second move reflects a reassessment of the path.