The news that's moving the market today.

Market mood

Composite sentiment is 7.0, labeled Neutral. That points to balanced conditions rather than strong fear or strong greed.

VIX (the volatility index, which measures how much traders expect the S&P 500 to swing over the next 30 days; below 15 is calm, above 25 is stressed) is 18.3. That signals moderate expected moves and higher option costs.

S&P 500 futures (contracts that track the expected level of the S&P 500 index before the cash market opens) are up about 0.1 percent, implying a flat to slightly positive US open.

DXY (the US Dollar Index, which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies) is slightly higher, while gold is up about 0.7 percent. That mix shows modest demand for protection and can cap equity enthusiasm if it builds.

Oil is down about 1.5 percent after spiking on Gulf headlines. Lower oil eases pressure on assets that are sensitive to inflation, but new supply shocks could reverse the move quickly.

The US 10-year yield (the interest rate on the 10-year US Treasury bond) is a touch higher. Higher yields often weigh on growth-focused stocks and support the dollar.

Bitcoin is up roughly 3 percent. Crypto can move quickly in both directions if macro stress rises.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index for stocks (a composite of seven market indicators; 0 is extreme fear, 100 is extreme greed) is 63, which tilts greedy. The equivalent read for crypto is 50, which is balanced.

Net read: cautious but not stressed. Liquidity looks adequate and headlines matter, so intraday moves can be choppy and news-driven.

What happened in the last 24 hours

• US and Iran launched new attacks as they wrestled for control of Gulf waters near the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman where about one fifth of the world’s oil flows). Naval skirmishes and strikes raised concern about shipping safety and energy supply. This lifted the chance of periodic oil spikes and supported gold and the US dollar during flare-ups.

• Global oil prices briefly topped about 114 dollars and hit a four-year high after Iranian attacks on a UAE energy hub and vessels. Supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz intensified. Higher oil raises inflation concerns and hurts energy users like airlines and chemicals. It tends to help oil producers and weigh on broad equity indices if sustained.

• US forces reported sinking Iranian small boats and shooting down missiles and drones while working to secure shipping lanes. This showed commitment to keep sea routes open but also risked further escalation. Markets often add a security cushion to oil and gold during such operations, which can cap equity rallies until tensions ease.

• The dollar rose while European stocks and government bonds fell after initial reports of a US warship being hit by missiles. The move reflected a flight toward the dollar and away from risk-sensitive European assets. This pattern is a guide for how markets may react if tensions rise again.

• US stocks slipped as oil jumped following the Hormuz attacks and the hit to a UAE energy hub. Higher costs and supply chain uncertainty weighed on earnings expectations. Indices remain sensitive to further oil spikes.

Today's calendar

Released earlier today - 04:30 UTC. Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision. 4.35 percent vs 4.35 percent forecast, 4.10 percent previous. No surprise in the rate; focus shifts to the statement and press conference for guidance on how long rates stay high.

Still ahead - 07:00 UTC. Spain Unemployment Change. Forecast -18.6k vs -22.9k previous. - 09:30 UTC. Australia Cash Rate. Forecast 4.35 percent vs 4.10 percent previous. - 09:30 UTC. RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Inflation and growth guidance in focus. - 09:30 UTC. RBA Rate Statement. Clarity on the reaction function matters. - 10:30 UTC. RBA Press Conference. Tone can move AUD and local yields. - 11:00 UTC. Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes. Signals on future cuts. - 11:30 UTC. Switzerland CPI m/m (consumer price index; measures how fast prices are rising). Forecast 0.3 percent vs 0.2 percent previous. - 12:30 UTC. Euro Area. ECB (European Central Bank) President Lagarde Speech. Hints on the rate path. - 12:30 UTC. Canada Balance of Trade. Forecast -C$2.8B vs -C$5.74B previous. - 12:30 UTC. United States Exports, Imports, and Balance of Trade. Forecast trade balance -$60.5B vs -$57.3B previous. - 14:00 UTC. United States New Home Sales m/m. Forecast 4.9 percent vs -17.6 percent previous. - 14:00 UTC. United States ISM Services PMI (monthly survey of US service businesses; above 50 means growth). Forecast 53.7 vs 54.0 previous. - 14:00 UTC. United States JOLTs Job Openings (monthly count of open US jobs; higher means a tighter labor market). Forecast 6.83 million vs 6.882 million previous. - 14:00 UTC. United States Fed Governor Bowman Speech. Policy tone in focus. - 15:40 UTC. Euro Area ECB Lane Speech. Inflation drivers and guidance. - 16:30 UTC. United States Fed Vice Chair Barr Speech. Bank supervision comments. - 16:30 UTC. United Kingdom BoE (Bank of England) Woods Speech. Hints on timing of rate moves. - 20:30 UTC. United States API Crude Oil Stock Change. Previous -1.79 million barrels. - 21:00 UTC. New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report. System risks and tone. - 22:45 UTC. New Zealand Employment Change q/q and Unemployment Rate. Forecast 0.2 percent employment, 5.4 percent unemployment vs 5.4 percent previous. - 23:00 UTC. Australia Ai Group Industry Index. Forecast -27.0 vs -23.6 previous. - 23:00 UTC. South Korea Inflation Rate y/y. Forecast 2.6 percent vs 2.2 percent previous.

Key concept today

“Already in the price,” often said as “priced in” (already reflected in the current market price), explains why markets sometimes do not move on well-known news. If many traders expect an outcome and act on it, the price reaches that expectation before the event. After that, only a surprise versus what was expected moves the market.

This applies to geopolitical shocks and macro data. If most expect US services to remain firm, a stronger ISM Services PMI may not lift yields much if the market already assumed strength. A weaker reading could move more because it contradicts the prior assumption.

The surprise is not the headline itself. The surprise is the gap between the headline and what the market already assumed.