The news that's moving the market today.

Market mood

Composite 7.1, Neutral. That signals balanced risk with room for swings.

The VIX is at 17.7. That is calm to neutral and allows sharp intraday moves on headlines.

S&P 500 futures, which indicate where the index may open, are up 1.4%. That points to a stronger open with headline sensitivity.

The DXY is flat. That reduces immediate FX pressure but keeps rates and stocks tightly linked.

Gold is down 1.0%. That shows less demand for protection in the pre-open.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is down 1.1%. That eases energy pressure on equities but trims support for energy stocks.

Bitcoin is up 0.9%. That shows some appetite for risk in digital assets.

The Fear and Greed Index is 26, fear. That keeps equities prone to reversals on bad news. The crypto gauge is 50, neutral. That implies two-way action around headlines.

Overall tone is mixed. Expect choppy trade with quick turns around central bank and data releases.

What happened in the last 24 hours

The Fed, the US central bank that sets interest rates, raised rates for the first time since 2023 in a unanimous move. The target range moved to 3.75% to 4.00%, with the chair stressing inflation remains too high. Yields rose and stocks fell on the decision and tone. The message signaled willingness to keep policy tight.

Trading relevance: A firm Fed supports the dollar and yields, and keeps equities sensitive to any growth slowdown. Breaks in yields drive the equity direction of travel.

The hike failed to calm markets during the session, with the Dow down roughly 600 points at the lows. Traders leaned into the idea that more hikes could follow if inflation does not slow. Volatility picked up across stocks and bonds. Credit‑sensitive names lagged.

Trading relevance: Elevated swing risk favors disciplined sizing and faster profit‑taking. Stocks remain tied to rate moves and policy language.

A stronger dollar and rising yields were flagged as the main global spillovers from the Fed move. Higher US funding costs pressure non‑US borrowers and tighten global financial conditions. Capital tends to flow to US dollar assets when US rates rise. Emerging markets and commodities feel the strain.

Trading relevance: A firm dollar caps commodity rallies and weighs on non‑US equities. Any dollar pullback would be a tailwind for global risk assets.

A Houthi advance rattled Saudi security planning and drew a forceful Saudi response. The report underscored how quickly the conflict can shift and threaten energy infrastructure. The risk of supply disruption remains present even if spot prices eased today. The region stays fragile.

Trading relevance: Oil remains headline‑driven. Positive supply headlines can hit crude quickly, while any new disruption risk can lift it sharply.

Today's calendar

Released earlier today

• No high or medium‑impact releases have printed yet.

Still ahead

• 11:00 UTC. GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. High importance. Forecast 3‑0‑6, previous 3‑0‑6. A more hawkish split would lift GBP and UK yields; a more dovish split would do the opposite.
• 11:00 UTC. GBP Monetary Policy Summary. High importance. Tone and guidance will steer GBP and gilts. A tougher inflation stance boosts GBP and UK rates; any nod to slower growth risks would weaken GBP and support gilts.
• 11:00 UTC. GBP Official Bank Rate. High importance. Forecast 3.75%, previous 3.75%. A surprise hike would spike GBP and UK yields; an unexpected cut would hit GBP and rally gilts.
• 12:30 UTC. USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Medium importance. Forecast 31.3, previous 47.4. A big beat would lift yields and USD and pressure equities; a miss would support equities via lower yields.
• 12:30 UTC. USD Unemployment Claims. Medium importance. Forecast 207K, previous 206K. A lower print tightens financial conditions via higher yields and a firmer USD; a higher print eases conditions.
• 23:30 UTC. AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks. Medium importance. Any policy hint moves AUD and Australia rates. Hawkish notes support AUD; caution on growth weakens it.

Key concept today

Priced in means the market has already adjusted to new information. Once something is priced, it takes fresh news to move assets further.

When the path of rates is widely assumed, small surprises can matter more than the headline. If everyone expects a hike, a softer inflation print can move yields and equities more than the hike itself.

The same logic applies in commodities. If traders assume tight supply, a single headline that reduces disruption risk can hit prices fast because few are positioned for it.

For equities, the link often runs through yields and the dollar. Higher yields lower stock valuations, and a stronger dollar pressures global earnings. A shift in either can swing the day.